PRAFUL SHANKAR
The first set of electoral results since the Prime Minister’s demonetization program came and went without much of a mention from the media. In case anyone was checking, they were decisively in favor of the BJP – bypoll wins in MP and Assam, surging in vote share in Tripura and handsome wins in local body elections in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
It goes without saying that these results cannot be taken as a definitive referendum on the PM’s latest initiative – local polls tend to be more about local issues. However, one should still note that, at the very least, the inconvenience suffered by the common man due to demonetization does not seem to have influenced voting preferences negatively to any major extent in these particular polls –something which runs in direct contradiction to the claims of widespread public misery which has been bandied about by the Opposition and a cynical media.
One cannot fault the Prime Minister’s opponents for trying though. Each of the various claimants to the PM’s chair from the Opposition trenches – from Mamata to Kejriwal to Rahul – see the difficulties caused by the demonetization program in the day to day life of the common man as their chance to goad the public into resenting the NDA government and its leader.
Yet, public reaction – from what we have seen so far –has been the exact opposite and the trust that was placed by the Prime Minister in the maturity of the common Indian does not seem to be have been misplaced. And while this turn of events may have come as surprise to the Opposition, placing a great deal of onus on the intelligence of the public has been part of Narendra Modi’s modus operandi for long.
We have seen it during his days in Gujarat, when took a different route from the prevalent populist electoral strategies of the Sonia-Manmohan era and decided to charge his electorate for the power which was provided to them through his extensive electrification program.
We have seen it during his time in Delhi as well – from the ‘Give It Up’ campaign to SwachhBharath, most of the PM’s pet initiatives have been marked deviations from the loan waivers and ‘free TV’ schemes of the past. Even the much vaunted Rs 36,000 crores budget bonanza for rural India does not follow previously prescribed lines – with the focus being on long term irrigation programs and technology adoption rather than simple handouts.
This unconventional approach can be seen in the Modi-led BJP’s political moves as well. Post 2014, the party’s leadership has shunned tradition while filling a host of high profile political positions. Today, a non-Maratha leads Maharashtra, a non-Jat is the CM of Haryana, a Jain leads the PM’s home state of Gujarat and the CM of Jharkhand in not from the tribal community – a leadership landscape which would have been unthinkable even as recently as 3 years ago.
It is also one which places considerable onus on the respective governments to impress the electorate through actual governance rather than community centric politicking, while also expecting that the populace will place general developmental issues above their own narrow caste considerations while voting next time around. Most political pundits would tell you that this is a high risk approach. And they wouldn’t be wrong either.
All over the world, we are seeing the rise of populism and the victory of politicians who play to the lowest common denominator. The US Presidential election has just been won by a candidate who promised to build a wall along the US-Mexico border and engage in a trade war with China. We are seeing similar populist propaganda dramatically alter the political landscape across Europe and some parts of Asia.
Even in India we have the examples of Delhi and Bihar – the first where the public decided to go for a party which encouraged people to not pay their electricity bills and the second where caste and religious arithmetic won over the larger message of development.
So, PM Modi is really betting and running against both history and current trends here.
Even so, the fact that he has readily undertaken such a huge political risk would mean that he would have seen a few things working in his favor as well – some of which are widely known and one which is perhaps just an educated guess of this writer.
The first is his own personal connect with the common man. In the eyes of most Indians, he is seen as the rank outsider trying to reform a 60 year old corrupt system. And by having presided over a largely untainted Government so far, he has only managed to enhance that reputation. Hence, when the public sees an uncorrupt Prime Minister, with a fairly simple personal background, take a bold move to hit the crooked, they feel that he is throwing the punch for them. This is an advantage that few politicians have in the world today and the Prime Minister has wielded it wisely thus far.
The second one is the audience that the Prime Minister is talking to. Unlike the electorates of most other countries, India’s is young and expectant with the promise of better days ahead. Also, unlike the electorates of smaller western countries and states like Bihar and Delhi, the national Indian electorate is too large to be able to be manipulated with targeted populism.
Another one is, perhaps, the Prime Minister’s innate belief in the character of the common Indian. You could travel the length and breadth of this vast land and you would find it almost impossible to meet a member of the larger Sangh parivar and the larger Indic ecosystem who does not share this sentiment. Unlike the internationalists who ruled India for decades – and had the tendency to see the Indian electorate as depraved, intellectual simpletons – the Prime Minister’s larger ideological underpinnings are centered around his belief in the notion of Indian righteousness, giving him the instinctivecourage to stake his political future on the intelligence and honesty of the larger Indian public.
It is still early to gauge whether this approach will be as successful for PM Modi nationally as it was for him in Gujarat. But there is little doubt that what we are witnessing is an ambitious attempt to effect a transformative change at how India is governed and that the possible success of this method has the potential to change Indian political discourse for decades to come.
This is one unique facet of the demonetization discourse and the larger Modi dispensation which seems to have been missed by political commentators. But then, who has time when you are shoving mikes into people’s faces at ATM queues
(The writer is a political observer and commentator besides being an IT expert, he can be reached at prafulshankar@gmail.com or at the twitter handle @shankarpraful. Views expressed are his own)